10 bold predictions for the 2023 NFL season

2023 NFL season- Are you a fan of controversial opinions? Well, we’re not either. Contrary to the approach of garnering attention and sparking outrage, we believe it’s unproductive to make sweeping statements like “Kirk Cousins is the worst quarterback in the NFL.” Instead, we’ll leave that to the Twitterati seeking validation and hoping for a windfall from the illustrious Elon.

Welcome “Bold Predictions”! These are the NFL season insights we strongly believe in and confidently support with reasoning. Let’s dive in and discover what lies ahead.

1. The Raiders will learn Derek Carr wasn’t the problem

Derek Carr may not be considered a top-tier quarterback who would be ranked in the top 5 of the position, but he is significantly better than how the Raiders have treated him. The transition from Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo cannot be seen as anything other than a downgrade, and here’s why.

Jimmy excelled in San Francisco, thanks to their formidable defense. The defensive strategy not only relieved immense pressure on the quarterback to perform miracles but also consistently granted the offense an excellent field position. The 49ers ranked second in the NFL for fewest first downs allowed, amassing a remarkable 30 takeaways throughout the season, while maintaining the best scoring defense with an average of only 16.3 points allowed per game.

Contrary to expectations, the Raiders’ defense is satisfactory yet unremarkable. Las Vegas ranked last in takeaways (13), 27th in first downs allowed and conceded an average of 24.6 points per game. This subjected Carr to immense pressure to win high-scoring contests, where his weaknesses became glaringly evident.

Furthermore, the San Francisco offense was specifically designed to support the quarterback. They implemented a West Coast offensive strategy that relied heavily on yards after the catch (YAC). This tactical approach covertly compensated for some of Garoppolo’s weaknesses as a passer. However, with his return to the Patriots’ Erhardt-Perkins system, there are similarities in the DNA of the two offenses. Yet, the new system demands that Garoppolo utilize more vertical routes, primarily targeting Davante Adams. I remain uncertain whether the Raiders possess the wide receivers necessary to execute this offensive scheme effectively.

I believe that once everything settles, it will become evident that the Raiders’ inability to overcome their obstacles was rooted in various interconnected factors, extending beyond mere quarterback issues.

2. Brock Purdy will come back to earth

The buzz surrounding Brock Purdy towards the end of 2022 reached unprecedented heights. Whenever a late-round quarterback excels, there’s an infectious mix of underdog enthusiasm and Tom Brady romanticism that propels them into the spotlight. Now, as Purdy transitions from an intriguing late-season curiosity to a full-fledged 17-game starter, a sense of caution lingers in the air. There’s something about this shift that triggers a wariness within me.

Brock Purdy: 67.1% CMP, 3,336 yards, 32 TD, 10 INT

Quarterback X: 67.6% CMP, 3,801 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT

While it is clear that Purdy threw more touchdowns but fewer yards, these statistics can mainly be attributed to the impressive field position facilitated by the 49ers defense. Ultimately, both quarterbacks can be considered quite comparable in terms of their performance. Quarterback X mirrors the rookie season of Mac Jones with the Patriots.

Jones experienced a significant regression after a standout rookie season, primarily due to defensive coaches studying his gameplay and devising strategies to counter him. However, it would be premature to assume that Purdy will face a similar outcome. It is prudent to exercise caution and temper our expectations before hailing him as the next prodigious talent.

I anticipate that Purdy will not perform poorly, but I also don’t expect him to achieve greatness. Instead, I believe he will revert to the average and become a competent NFL starter, rather than emerging as the next Tom Brady.

3. The Giants will shock everyone and win the NFC East

**Dodges a rock thrown by an Eagles fan** Alright, hear me out: I genuinely have a strong affinity for the Giants this year. Perhaps a little more than a non-Giants fan typically should. In fact, I firmly believe that this team possesses the potential to surprise many and emerge victorious in their division.

Cons is the foremost factor contributing to this outcome. When assessing the division’s pedigree (Dallas and Philly), it becomes apparent that both teams underwent substantial structural changes during the offseason. The Cowboys saw the appointment of Brian Schottenheimer as their offensive coordinator, succeeding Kellen Moore. Meanwhile, the Eagles had to fill the vacancies left by two coordinators who departed for head coaching positions.

The Giants showcased Brian Daboll’s true talent last year, with Mike Kafka leading the offense and Wink Martendale commanding the defense. With minimal personnel changes, this team maintains its consistency while also making valuable additions in free agency. The Giants exemplify a well-balanced force, demonstrating their prowess on both sides of the field.

The post-Super Bowl slump is an undeniable reality. It poses immense challenges for teams to regain their footing after a loss in the grandest game of them all. Even exceptional teams require a considerable amount of time to find their rhythm again. Given the recent changes in Philadelphia, it seems highly plausible that this team would need a year to rebuild their chemistry. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have the task of undergoing a transformation under Schottenheimer, while the Giants cunningly seize the opportunity to make a triumphant getaway.

The competition is expected to be intense, with all the teams demonstrating their capabilities. This level of competitiveness increases the likelihood of a closely contested event.

4. Kyler Murray does not play this season

The Arizona Cardinals have a compelling reason to have Kyler Murray on the field this season: he unequivocally stands as their top choice for the quarterback position.

However, there exist approximately 67 million reasons why they might prefer to sideline him during the 2023 campaign.

$67 million, to be precise.

Murray, who recently recovered from an ACL tear, will commence the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Consequently, he will be sidelined for a minimum of four games in the upcoming 2023 season. The injury, which occurred in December of last year, left uncertainty during the offseason regarding his availability for the start of the schedule.

However, the Cardinals may exercise caution in their approach. According to Murray’s contract, he stands to receive almost $67 million in injury guarantees if he fails to pass a physical before March 2024. Given the modest expectations surrounding the Cardinals and the recent offseason moves fueling speculation of a roster overhaul, the organization might opt to maintain flexibility as they navigate the upcoming offseason.

Including a potential trade involving Murray.

Alternatively, the team could embrace this season as an opportunity to reset and prioritize Murray’s complete recovery for the following year. As we previously detailed in May, the Cardinals hold a significant position in shaping the onset of the 2024 draft. Not only are they expected to obtain an early pick of their own, but they also possess control over the Houston Texans’ first-round selection for the upcoming year.

Current projections hold those as the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

If that holds, the Cardinals will truly own the keys to the draft next season.

There is precedent for a team sitting down a quarterback due to injury guarantee concerns. Indianapolis did that with Matt Ryan, as did the Raiders with Derek Carr. While doing it for an entire season might be a new step, the Cardinals have a lot of reasons to go down that road.

Including $67 million reasons.

5. Every team in the AFC East finishes above .500

Since the NFL adopted the four-division format prior to the 2002 season, there hasn’t been a single campaign in which all teams in a division finished with a winning record above .500.

Three times, all four teams in the division achieved a .500 or better record. In 2007, the Houston Texans and the Philadelphia Eagles both secured an 8-8 record, placing them at the bottom of their respective divisions. The following year, Washington and New Orleans also finished with 8-8 records, positioning them at the bottom of the NFC East and the NFC South divisions, respectively.

Last year Washington did it again, finishing last in the NFC East with an 8-8-1 record.

In an NFL first, all four teams in the AFC East finished above .500 this year.

Certainly, the current wager is placed on the New England Patriots. While many consider the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins as potential contenders for the division, and even the AFC itself, analysts aren’t as bullish on New England. The majority of concerns revolve around the offensive facet of the game. However, if Bill O’Brien can maximize the potential of this New England offense—or at the very least propel them towards significant improvement compared to last year—combined with what appears to be an excellent defense, they could exceed expectations. It may not guarantee New England a playoff spot, but it might just be enough to achieve a winning record above .500.

6. One of the AFC’s “big three” will break down

For the past two years, a distinct hierarchy has emerged in the AFC, but come 2023, that hierarchy will be disrupted. The Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals have reigned as the conference elites, with everyone expecting them to go the distance. However, this year, that narrative will shift.

Finally, the Chiefs demonstrated Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce’s ability to lead the offense even in the absence of a prominent wide receiver. Nonetheless, this season poses a challenge as they contend with their least formidable receiving corps since Mahomes entered the league. The loss of Orlando Brown, Kelce’s injury worries, and the potential absence of Chris Jones will further examine the team’s resilience.

This season, it is inevitable that one of these three teams will fall short of making the playoffs and will need to revamp their roster to bounce back.

7. The Cardinals won’t just be bad, but historically bad

Only two teams in NFL history have gone 0-16. The Cardinals could become the first to go 0-17. The 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns are widely regarded as two of the most abysmal teams ever to grace the field—and unfortunately, it seems that Arizona may be heading in the same dismal direction.

This is unmistakably in a rebuilding phase, strategically preparing for the future. They possess the necessary assets to execute this plan successfully; however, if Kyler Murray’s season is prematurely ended, it becomes highly improbable for this team to secure more than two victories, if that. The Arizona team faces a daunting schedule due to their placement in the fiercely competitive NFC West, and aside from the Texans, identifying other potential wins proves challenging.

8. The Lions let everyone down

I understand, I understand. You adore the Lions, I adore the Lions — we all relish witnessing this captivating underdog tale driven by Hard Knocks. Yet, once again, they let us down this year.

Dan Campbell’s team faces sky-high expectations, yet surpassing last year’s 9-8 record seems unlikely. Not only were they dealt a blow with gambling suspensions impacting the team’s depth, but Frank Reich enticing key position coaches to join him at the Panthers further depleted their coaching staff.

9. A RB wins Offensive Player of the Year

One of the key storylines of the offseason centered around the challenges faced by running backs. Many felt they were not being adequately compensated, leading to a heated debate on the value of the position. However, as the season unfolds, we expect to see an increase in teams utilizing gap scheme concepts, with success ultimately hinged on the ability to generate explosive plays in the running game.

Running backs who hold great significance to their respective teams will likely receive increased playing time. Take Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers, for instance. In his first full season with the team, it’s highly probable that he will continue to perform exceptionally well. Furthermore, with Saquon Barkley returning to the Giants, his level of involvement may significantly depend on the overall health of the team’s offense. Additionally, we could consider potential sleeper players, such as Derrick Henry of the Titans, if they were to secure the division title and if Henry fully recovers his strength. Regardless of the outcomes, it appears that running the ball may become popular once again, and it would undoubtedly be astonishing if a running back were to win the Offensive Player of the Year award following this offseason.

10. Jonathan Gannon doesn’t finish the season as Cardinals HC

My friend, the Cardinals has been struggling lately. With Kyler Murray out for the first half of the season and the team starting to sell off parts, things aren’t looking great. Gannon appears overwhelmed, and the franchise lacks excitement and intrigue at the moment. This could spell disaster for Arizona, and if things go historically bad, Gannon might not be there to witness them secure the top overall pick.